Market Pulse

3 things that moved, and what they mean for you

The market turned colder this week, in more ways than one. Three things moved:

1. Winter is drying up new listings. Fewer owners put their homes up for sale in the depths of winter, and this year is no exception, with new listings running below their five-year average. Sellers are holding off until spring, so buyers are working with less choice, but also less competition on the homes that are out there.

2. Help to Buy just added 10,000 more places. From 1 July, the government's shared-equity scheme opened 10,000 new spots for 2026-27 and lifted the income caps to $103,000 for singles and $165,000 for couples and single parents. You can buy with a 2% deposit while the government takes up to a 40% share on a new home, or 30% on an existing one.

3. National home values posted their biggest fall in over three years. Cotality's June index showed national values down 0.4%, the largest monthly drop since December 2022. But the falls weren't even across the country:

• Sydney −1.2%
• Melbourne −1.0%
• Canberra −0.6%
• Adelaide flat
• Brisbane +0.3%
• Perth +0.7%

What it means for you: a cooling market and thin winter stock mean less competition, a genuine window for buyers who are ready. If you're buying your first home, the expanded Help to Buy could shrink the deposit hurdle dramatically, but places are limited and demand is strongest in Victoria. Get your pre-approval and paperwork sorted now so you can move when the right place appears.

Source: Cotality, Housing Australia, ABS

Negotiation Tip

Ask how long it's been on the market

The longer a home has sat on the market, the more leverage you have. A property that has been listed for weeks usually means a vendor who is getting nervous and a price that has room to move. In a softening winter market, this is one of the sharpest tools you have.

How to use it:

• Check the listing date: the portals show when a home first went up. Anything past the local average, often 30 to 40 days, points to a motivated seller.
• Ask directly: "How long has this been on the market?" and "Have there been any offers?" The answer, or the hesitation, tells you plenty.
• Use it to sharpen your offer: point out the home has been listed a while, then make your offer stand out, either by coming in lower on price or by offering settlement terms that suit the vendor.

One tactic every week. Stack them up and you could save thousands on your first home.

The Data

This week's auction clearance rates

City	Clearance rate
Melbourne	54.6%
Sydney	51.6%
Canberra	50.0%
Adelaide	45.7%
Perth	33.3%*
Brisbane	23.8%

*Perth's figure is based on fewer than 10 auctions this week, so treat it as a rough guide rather than a firm read.

The auction clearance rate is the quickest way to read the market's temperature. A high rate (above 70%) means buyers are competing hard and prices tend to rise, a sign of a hot market. A low rate like this week's, with the combined capitals sitting at 49.8%, means there are more sellers than keen buyers, which usually leads to slower price growth or even small falls, and more room to negotiate.

Source: Cotality, preliminary results week ending 5 July 2026.

Suburb Spotlight

Grovedale VIC 3216

Houses · 6km to Geelong CBD · LGA: Greater Geelong

Typical Value	$746,400
Capital Growth (12mo)	10.9%
Rental Yield	3.82%
Weekly Rent	$544
Vacancy Rate	0.9%
DSR Score	58
Days on Market	19 days
Stock on Market	0.30%
Build Approvals	1.43% (84)
Vendor Discount	1.46%
Renter to Owner-Occupier Ratio	27.4%

Our Score 9/10

Our Analysis: Grovedale is located 6km from Geelong's CBD, and Geelong is set for an infrastructure boom as it grows into Victoria's second-biggest city, the key link in the growth corridor between Melbourne and Geelong. For an investor this is exactly what you want to see. Capital growth is a simple supply and demand game, and here both sides are firing. Supply is tight with only 0.30% of homes on the market and barely any new builds in the pipeline, while demand is strong with homes selling in around three weeks. That pressure is already pushing prices, up 10.9% in the past year. The renter to owner-occupier ratio is fantastic too, this is an owner-occupied suburb rather than an investor-heavy one, and that keeps a stable floor under prices. An easy yes from us.

Unsure how these stats affect capital growth? Check out our Instagram that breaks down each term.

Source: Moorr, REA & HtAG

Reader Question

Is Help to Buy worth it? What's the catch?

Help to Buy lets you buy with a 2% deposit while the government takes an equity share, up to 40% on a new home or 30% on an existing one. That slashes the size of your loan and can save you from paying lenders mortgage insurance. But "shared equity" cuts both ways.

The trade-offs:

• They share the growth: when you sell, the government takes their same percentage of the sale price, gains included. If your home rises $200,000 and they hold 30%, $60,000 of that gain is theirs.
• You can buy them out: over time, in chunks, using savings or a refinance, if you want the full upside back.
• Places and caps apply: 10,000 spots for 2026-27, income limits of $103,000 single and $165,000 for couples, plus property price caps that vary by location.

Bottom line: think of Help to Buy as a stepping stone, not a forever home. It is a great way to get into a first place and move on to your next one, but it is not built for the home you plan to hold for decades. The longer you hold, the longer the government holds its share of your growth. Use it to get on the ladder, build some equity, then buy them out or move up when you can.

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