Market Pulse

3 things that moved, and what they mean for you

This week, three developments that matter for buyers: a proposal for cheaper mortgages, fresh data showing the market cooling further, and first-home buyers taking a bigger share of lending.

1. A proposal for 5% mortgages. There's a proposal from One Nation for a publicly-owned bank offering 30-year fixed mortgages at 5%, well below the roughly 6.23% average variable rate today. It's just a policy idea at this stage, not law, but it's a sign of how central mortgage affordability has become right now.

2. The cooling is deepening. The slowdown that's been building for months picked up pace over the June quarter, with national home values down 0.7%, the biggest quarterly fall since January 2023. Annual growth has eased to 7.3%, and the two biggest markets are leading it lower:

• Sydney — down 3.2% for the quarter
• Melbourne — down 2.6% for the quarter
• Perth +2.0%, Brisbane & Adelaide +1.3%, Darwin +5.0% at a record high

The buyer's-market signals are stacking up: homes now take 32 days to sell, vendor discounting has widened to 3.6% across the capitals, and total listings are running 8.4% higher than a year ago.

3. First-home buyers are piling back in. First-home buyers made up 29% of owner-occupier loans, above the decade average of 27.6%, driven by the expanded 5% deposit guarantee. Investors still account for 40.3% of all lending, but the FHB share is the highest it's been in years.

What it means for you: the balance of power has tipped toward buyers. Falling values, more stock and bigger vendor discounts mean more room to negotiate, and if you're a first-home buyer, the 5% deposit guarantee is getting more people in the door with a smaller deposit. A cooling market isn't a reason to wait; it's often the better window to buy well.

Source: Cotality July 2026 Housing Chart Pack, ABS, One Nation

Negotiation Tip

Let "days on market" do your negotiating

With capital-city homes now taking around 32 days to sell, up sharply, time has quietly become the buyer's best tool. A property that's been sitting tells you the vendor's expectations and reality have drifted apart, and that's your opening.

How to use it:

• Ask one question first: before you talk price, ask the agent "how long has this been listed?" If it's past about 30 days, the vendor's patience, and often their price, is already softening.
• Offer below market value when the listing has gone stale: if a property has sat for weeks with no obvious reason, price, presentation or location all look fine, it usually means it's overpriced. That's your cue to come in under market value with a confident offer, because the vendor's own timeline is now working against them.
• Be willing to walk: with total listings up 8.4% on last year, there's more choice than there's been in a while. In a rising-stock market, walking away is a real threat, and agents know it.

The Data

This week's auction clearance rates

City	Clearance rate
Melbourne	56.5%
Adelaide	54.9%
Sydney	47.4%
Brisbane	35.9%
Canberra	27.8%
Perth	50.0%*

*Perth's figure is based on fewer than 10 auctions this week, so treat it as a rough guide rather than a firm read.

The auction clearance rate is the quickest way to read the market's temperature. A high rate (above 70%) means buyers are competing hard and prices tend to rise; below 60% and the pressure sits with sellers. This week the combined capitals cleared just 50%, down from 54.8% last week, so nearly half of all auctions failed to sell. Melbourne and Adelaide held up best while Sydney slipped below 50% and Canberra lagged well behind. It's the clearest sign yet that the balance of power sits firmly with buyers, right in line with the falling values in this week's Market Pulse.

Source: Cotality, preliminary results week ending 19 July 2026.

Suburb Spotlight

Dubbo NSW 2830

Houses · Central-West NSW · LGA: Dubbo Regional

Median Price	$675,000
Capital Growth (12mo)	14.4%
Rental Yield	4.44%
Weekly Rent	$585
Vacancy Rate	0.83%
DSR Score	55
Days on Market	31 days
Stock on Market	1.14%
Vendor Discount	1.51%
Renter to Owner-Occupier Ratio	35.1%

Our Score 7/10

Our Analysis: Dubbo is the commercial hub of Central-West NSW, a standalone regional city with a diversified economy spanning health, agriculture, transport and government services rather than a single industry. That diversity is its strength. A median house at $675,000 rents for $585 a week on a 4.44% yield, and vacancy at just 0.83% is genuinely tight, tenants are competing hard for stock. Owner-occupiers dominate too, with renters only 35.1% of the market, which tends to mean a more stable, less speculative base than heavier investor towns. A DSR of 55 sits above the midpoint, pointing to demand still running ahead of supply. What holds it back from a higher mark is that Dubbo isn't commutable to a capital city, roughly four hours from Sydney, so it can't lean on spillover demand from people priced out of the metro and has to stand entirely on its own local economy. Add softer growth after a strong run (14.4% over the year) and a touch more stock on market at 1.14%, and the easy gains may be behind it. Solid fundamentals and a tight rental market, but the isolation and moderating growth keep it at a 7.

Unsure how these stats affect capital growth? Check out our Instagram that breaks down each term.

Source: Moorr, REA & HtAG

Reader Question

Prices are falling, should I wait, or use the 5% deposit guarantee now?

It's the question of the moment, and there's no single right answer. But there is a way to think about it that beats trying to guess the bottom.

The trade-off:

• Waiting only wins if prices fall faster than you gain elsewhere: faster than you're saving, and faster than any rate cut restores everyone's borrowing power at once. The moment rates drop, demand re-fires and the discount you waited for can vanish.
• The 5% guarantee is real money now: it saves you Lenders Mortgage Insurance, often $10,000 to $15,000, and gets you in years earlier instead of renting while you save a full 20%.
• You can't time a bottom you only see in the rear-view mirror: by the time the data confirms the low point, the window has usually already closed.

Bottom line: buy when your own numbers work and the property stacks up, not when you've perfectly called the market. A falling market is often a buyer's best window, not a reason to sit it out.

General information only, not personal advice. Chat to a broker or adviser about your situation.

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