Market Pulse

3 things that moved, and what they mean for you

Big week for the numbers that sit behind every property decision: rates, rents and wages all made news.

1. Rate cuts just got pushed out to 2027. The AFR reports the next interest rate cut may not arrive until well into 2027, with the cash rate parked at 4.35%. Where each big bank sees the first cut landing:

• CBA — May 2027
• NAB — June 2027
• ANZ — September 2027
• Westpac — the outlier, tipping two more hikes before any relief

2. Rents just hit a record $705 a week. Cotality's new quarterly rental review shows the national median rent rose another 1.6% over the June quarter, taking annual growth to 5.9%, faster than last quarter, not slower. Rents have now climbed 40.6% in five years, about $204 a week more, and are eating a record share of household income. The driver hasn't changed: vacancy is stuck at 1.6% and rental listings are running 16.7% below the five-year average. Here's where each city's median weekly rent now sits:

• Sydney $841/wk
• Perth $784/wk
• Brisbane $734/wk

3. The minimum wage jumped 6% on 1 July. The national minimum wage is now $26.44 an hour, which works out to $1,004.90 a week or about $52,255 a year, and award wages rose 4.75%. If you're stacking shifts in retail, a cafe or hospitality as a second job to build your deposit faster, those hours are now worth more.

What it means for you: renting is steadily becoming more expensive while home values drift sideways and rates stay put. If you're renting while you save for a first home, rising rents make the deposit slower to build, even with wages going up.

Source: AFR, RBA, Cotality, Fair Work

Negotiation Tip

The passed-in auction is your opening, not the end

Almost half of all capital-city auctions failed to sell last weekend. When a home passes in, most buyers walk away. That's exactly when the real negotiation starts, and the highest bidder holds the cards.

How to use it:

• Be the highest bidder: if a property passes in, the highest bidder always gets the exclusive right to negotiate with the vendor.
• Let the silence work: a vendor whose auction just failed in front of the street is under real pressure. You don't need to raise your number to keep the conversation going.
• Anchor to the evidence: "It passed in at $X with no other bidders" is the most honest price feedback a vendor will ever get. Build your offer around it, not around the price guide.

The Data

This week's auction clearance rates

City	Clearance rate
Adelaide	59.1%
Sydney	57.5%
Melbourne	56.2%
Canberra	44.9%
Brisbane	43.0%
Perth	25.0%*

*Perth's figure is based on fewer than 10 auctions this week, so treat it as a rough guide rather than a firm read.

The auction clearance rate is the quickest way to read the market's temperature. A high rate (above 70%) means buyers are competing hard and prices tend to rise. This week the combined capitals cleared 54.8%, up from 49.8% last week, so buyers showed up a little hungrier. But with nearly half of all auctions still failing to sell, the balance of power hasn't left the buyer's side yet.

Source: Cotality, preliminary results week ending 12 July 2026.

Suburb Spotlight

Mildura VIC 3500

Houses · North-West Victoria · LGA: Mildura Rural City

Median Price	$585,000
Capital Growth (12mo)	20.6%
Rental Yield	4.67%
Weekly Rent	$507
Vacancy Rate	1.68%
DSR Score	52
Days on Market	29 days
Stock on Market	0.31%
Vendor Discount	1.55%
Renter to Owner-Occupier Ratio	38.5%

Our Score 7/10

Our Analysis: Mildura is a standalone regional city in Victoria's north-west, not a commuter suburb, so it lives and dies on its own economy: horticulture, agriculture and the services that support them. The appeal here is cash flow. A median house at $585,000 rents for $507 a week on a 4.67% gross yield, well above what the big regional centres closer to Melbourne offer, and vacancy at 1.68% keeps tenants competing for what's available. The past year has been huge, with values up 20.6%. Supply is still tight, with just 0.31% of homes listed, but a DSR of 52 sits only just above the midpoint, so demand is easing back rather than firing the way it was. Renters also make up 38.5% of the market, a heavier investor share than we prefer. That reads like a market still growing, but with the growth softening after a big run.

Unsure how these stats affect capital growth? Check out our Instagram that breaks down each term.

Source: Moorr, REA & HtAG

Reader Question

If rate cuts are years away, should I wait for them before buying?

It's a tempting, logical thought: wait for 2027 and borrow cheaper. But there are always two sides to waiting for a rate cut, and the other side has a cost.

The trade-off:

• Cheaper money usually means dearer homes: when rates fall, borrowing power rises for every buyer at once, and history shows prices tend to respond quickly. The discount you're waiting for often gets eaten by the price you'll pay.
• Rents don't wait with you: at a record $705 a week nationally and climbing 5.9% a year, every year of waiting has a real cost attached, money that builds no equity.
• The forecasts keep moving: a year ago, cuts were expected in 2026. Now it's 2027, and one big bank even tips hikes. Building a plan around a forecast means rebuilding it every time the forecast changes.

Bottom line: buy when your own numbers work at today's rates. If a rate cut comes, it's a nice bonus, not something to rely on.

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